Apple's struggles represent a fundamental misreading of the AI revolution.
Apple sits in an unprecedented position: It's a company worth more than $3 trillion that's somehow missing the most transformative technological shift since the internet.
While rivals race ahead in artificial intelligence (AI), the iPhone maker is stuck in neutral, watching its market leadership erode with each passing quarter.
A solution might be on the way, but don't hold your breath. Apple is reportedly preparing an AI product blitz That would give a new shine to its device lineup — with robots that include a lifelike version of Siri, a smart speaker with a screen, a new operating system and major home security services.
But is Apple too late?
Skepticism runs deep about Apple's AI makeover after previous efforts with Siri, Apple Intelligence, and Apple Vision Pro largely fizzled. But a determined Tim Cook, Apple's chief executive, insists the company "must win in AI" and restore its innovation edge, according to a Bloomberg report. And last week, Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering using Alphabet's Gemini. to create an AI-powered Siri program .
Meanwhile, stock investors are rewarding Apple's rivals — Nvidia Microsoft Alphabet and Meta Platforms — for their aggressive AI investments.
Apple continues to rely on stock buybacks as its primary growth strategy. It's a defensive playbook when the moment demands bold offensive moves.
Apple's struggles represent a fundamental misreading of the AI revolution. While competitors pour resources into large-language models, autonomous systems and AI-powered services, Apple continues to rely on stock buybacks — to the tune of $704 billion over the past decade — as its primary growth strategy. It's a defensive playbook when the moment demands bold offensive moves.
One such move, a pledge by the company to invest $600 billion into U.S. operations over the next four years, promises a boost in manufacturing. But will we ever see it done? Is it a legitimate strategy or one of the empty commitments Apple has been making for some time?
In the meantime, a talent exodus speaks volumes about Apple's internal dysfunction around AI. The company lost its fourth top AI researcher to Meta this year, joining a broader brain drain that should alarm both investors and customers. When your brightest minds are fleeing to competitors, it signals deeper cultural and strategic problems that go beyond any single product cycle.
Every quarter Apple delays meaningful AI investment, the gap widens.
Perhaps most telling is Siri's continued mediocrity. After more than a decade of development, Apple's virtual assistant remains laughably behind OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google Assistant, and other AI alternatives. Getting Siri to "not suck," as one analyst bluntly put it, now seems highly improbable given Apple's track record. This isn't just a product failure, but a symbol of organizational complacency.
Read: Is Apple making the same mistakes BlackBerry did? Here's how it can change course.
The AI revolution differs fundamentally from previous tech cycles. Unlike the mobile transition, where Apple could observe, learn and then leapfrog competitors with superior execution, AI advantages compound rapidly. Companies with early leads in data, talent and infrastructure create moats that become increasingly difficult to bridge. Every quarter Apple delays meaningful AI investment, the gap widens.
Consider the operating leverage dynamics at play. AI is inherently deflationary, benefiting companies that can spread development costs across massive user bases and infrastructure. Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Alphabet understand this, which is why they're being rewarded for aggressive capital expenditure. Apple's traditionally conservative approach of waiting to perfect products before launch could prove catastrophic in a field where speed and scale determine winners.
Apple's entire ecosystem assumes the smartphone will remain our primary device, but that assumption is increasingly looking vulnerable.
The smartphone-centric worldview that built Apple's empire may be under threat. Meta's bet on mixed-reality glasses as the next primary computing device isn't far-fetched when viewed through an AI lens. OpenAI is working with iPhone designer Jony Ive on a hardware project of its own.
If ambient intelligence becomes the norm — and users interact with AI through voice, gesture, and environmental sensors — the iPhone's touch screen interface could seem quaint. Apple's entire ecosystem assumes the smartphone will remain our primary device, but that assumption looks increasingly vulnerable.
Some argue that Apple's massive installed base of 2.2 billion users provides enough runway to catch up. This misses the point. Network effects in AI favor platforms that continuously learn from user interactions. Google search processes billions of queries every day, Meta's algorithms analyze social interactions, and Microsoft's Copilot learns from workplace productivity patterns. Apple's devices generate data, but the company lacks the AI infrastructure to derive competitive advantages from it.
The path forward requires dramatic action. Industry observers have called for Apple to acquire Perplexity, the AI search startup A partnership with Google's Gemini makes sense, as does bringing outside AI talent to Apple's management ranks. Any of these moves would be a departure from Apple's traditional playbook — and that's precisely why they're necessary.
Cook's recent acknowledgment that AI is "as big as the internet" ironically highlights the problem. By the time Apple's leadership recognized the internet's importance, competitors had already built dominant positions. The same pattern threatens to repeat with AI.
Apple remains a formidable cash machine with remarkably loyal customers. But loyalty has limits, especially when competitors offer genuinely superior capabilities. The company that revolutionized personal computing, music and mobile phones now risks becoming the next cautionary tale — a once-dominant player that missed the new wave.
The AI transformation is happening faster than previous technological shifts. Apple's tradition of careful observation and delayed but superior execution won't work this time. The question isn't whether Apple will eventually embrace AI. It's whether that embrace will come too late to matter.
Daniel Newman is the CEO of the Futurum Group, which has provided or provided research, analysis, advising and/or consulting to ServiceNow, Intel, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon.com, IBM, AMD and other technology companies. Neither he nor the firm has any positions in any of the companies mentioned. Follow him on X @danielnewmanUV .
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